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WB: Uzbekistan will lead in the aspect of economic growth within Central Asia

The World Bank expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 5.6% in 2022 and 5.8% in 2023. This follows from a recent report by the World Economic Outlook organization.

In 2021, according to the bank, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 6.2% – significantly higher than the 4.3% predicted a year ago. Anti-crisis measures, income and investment growth, as well as remittances from migrants, helped to exceed expectations.

First in the region

The economy of Europe and Central Asia in 2021 grew by 5.8% at once. However, in 2022-2023, the growth will decrease to 2.9-3% annually, the WB expects.

According to the forecast, Uzbekistan has the best prospects in the region – the same growth rate for 2022 is expected only in Montenegro.

Slightly slower growth is predicted for Tajikistan and Georgia – 5.5%. In 2023, it will slow down to 4.5% and 5%, respectively.

For Kyrgyzstan, the World Bank predicts growth of 4.7% this year and 4.3% next year, in Kazakhstan – 3.7% and 4.8%. There is no reliable information on Turkmenistan.

The Turkish economy, after a recovery boom (9.5% in 2021), risks slowing down to 2% in 2022 and 3% in 2023. A similar situation is predicted in Russia – from 4.3% last year to 2.4% this year and 1.8% next year.

Back down

The World Bank noted the rapid recovery of domestic economic activity in 2021. However, due to surges in inflation in many countries, central banks began to scale back stimulus measures and tighten monetary policy.

In addition, new outbreaks of COVID-19, in particular the omicron strain, are negatively impacting demand, especially in countries with low vaccination rates. Oil and gas exporting countries are also vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices caused by the virus.

Также ВБ указал на сложности с привлечением внешнего финансирования во многих странах региона, отражающих геополитические риски.

Ещё одним негативным фактором станет замедление ведущих экономик мира, в том числе США и Китая. Оно скажется на внешнем спросе на продукцию многих стран региона.