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Business climate in January showed a slight decrease – CERR survey

The Business Climate Index in Uzbekistan was introduced according to the methodology of the German analogue of the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute (“IFO Institute”), one of the key indicators of economic activity in Germany.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CEIR) conducted another round of a survey among enterprises across the country.

More than 1,000 companies took part in the survey in two areas: a qualitative assessment of the current state of the business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.

The sampling methodology is sectoral stratified random sampling according to the World Bank Enterprise Survey methodology.

In January this year. The consolidated indicator of the business climate was 59 points (from -100 to +100), which assesses the state of the business environment in the country as positive.


Source: review.uz

Compared to December last year, the consolidated indicator of the business climate has slightly decreased by 3 points. This trend is explained by the expected cyclical fluctuations in the sectors of the domestic economy, which, based on a positive assessment of the current state and expectations of entrepreneurs, will experience accelerated development in the next 3 months.

In the context of industries, the business climate indicator was:

  • in construction 73 points;
  • in industry 58 points;
  • in the field of agriculture 58 points;
  • in the service sector 58 points.

Changes in the summary business climate indicator are associated with adjustments to the following indicator components:

The indicator of the current state of business compared to the same period last year increased by 10 points and amounted to 43 points, which characterizes the positive mood of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of their business.

The share of respondents who noted the current state of their business as good was 47%.

When asked how the state of business has changed over the past 3 months, 44% of entrepreneurs answered that it has improved, 45% have not changed, and 12% have worsened.

Demand for goods/services improved in 53% of enterprises, while the number of employees increased in 27% of enterprises.

The indicator of expectation of business development prospects amounted to 76 points, which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects for the development of their business for the next 3 months as optimistic.

83% believe their business prospects will improve. It is expected that the demand for goods and services will improve in 78% of enterprises, the number of employees will increase in 76%.

31% of entrepreneurs expect an increase in prices for goods / services in the next 3 months, 39% believe that prices will not change, and 5% – they will decrease. 25% of respondents do not know how prices for their goods/services will change in the near future

In the context of industries, the breakdown of the expectation indicator showed the following dynamics:

  • agriculture – 75 points;
  • industry – 75 points;
  • construction – 84 points;
  • services – 76 points.

Among all respondents, 40% stated that there were no obstacles in the development of their entrepreneurial activities.

Access to finance (20%) is one of the main concerns of entrepreneurs. It is followed by access to land – 11%, high tax rates – 10%, high prices and scarcity of raw materials – 5%, electricity supply – 4%, pandemic impact – 4%, tax administration – 4%.


Source: review.uz