GDP per capita rose by 9% in 2022 but remains the lowest among comparable countries.
S&P Global Ratings predicts Uzbekistan’s GDP growth by 5% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024. This was reported in the rating agency report dedicated to analysing the banking sector of Uzbekistan.
In 2022, the influx of remittances from Russia, along with increased trade flows with it, helped the Uzbek economy cope with the consequences of the military conflict in Ukraine.
GDP growth for this year is projected at about 5%, but in the next two years, it will be 5.5%. Despite the difficult geopolitical situation in the region and the world, the economy will continue to recover.
However, the economic outlook remains volatile amid the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, economic slowdown and inflationary pressures. The growth in remittances, as well as the inflow of capital and migrants, will be temporary, starting to change in 2023.
S&P positively assesses Uzbekistan’s economic reform program to improve the efficiency of state-owned enterprises and carry out privatization. This will positively impact an economy dominated by the public sector. Large-scale privatization will take time due to regional geopolitical tensions and the global economy’s unstable outlook.
Last year, GDP per capita increased by 9.3% and amounted to $2146.7 – this is the lowest level of well-being in comparable countries. However, the population’s real incomes may be higher than the official ones due to the significant volume of the shadow economy.
The net debt of the general government will be 23% of GDP by 2025 – a low level in the international context. The current account deficit will widen to 6% over the next three years but will be financed by FDI inflows and debt buildup.
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