The Business Climate Index in Uzbekistan was introduced according to the methodology of the German analogue of the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute (IFO Institute), one of the key indicators of economic activity in Germany.
The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) conducted another round of a survey among enterprises across the country. More than 1,000 companies took part in the survey in two areas: a qualitative assessment of the current state of the business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next three months.
The sampling methodology is sectoral stratified random sampling according to the World Bank Enterprise Survey methodology.
In February this year, the consolidated indicator of the business climate amounted to 60 points and compared to January of this year increased by 1 point, which assesses the state of the business climate in the country as positive (in February 2021 – 60 points; in January of this year – 59 points).
In the sectoral context, the indicator of the business climate in the field of agriculture amounted to 67 points, services – 56 points, in construction – 56 points and industry – 59 points.
Changes in the summary indicator of the business climate are associated with changes in the following components of the indicator:
The indicator of the current state of the business was 43 points, which characterizes the positive mood of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of the business (February 2021 – 44 points).
43% of the entrepreneurs surveyed rated the current state of their business as good.
When asked how the state of business has changed over the past 3 months, 29% of entrepreneurs answered that it has improved, 53% believe that it has not changed, and 18% have worsened.
Demand for goods/services improved in 39% of enterprises, while the number of employees increased in 22% of enterprises.
In the context of industries, the business climate indicator was:
– in the construction of 30 points;
– in industry 39 points;
– in the field of agriculture 48 points;
– in the service sector 44 points.
The indicator of expectation of business development prospects amounted to 79 points, which reflects the expectations of entrepreneurs about the prospects for the development of their business for the next 3 months as optimistic.
80% of entrepreneurs estimated that their business prospects would improve. It is expected that the demand for goods and services will improve in 73% of enterprises, the number of employees will increase in 68%.
22% of entrepreneurs expect an increase in prices for goods/services in the next 3 months. 29% believe that prices will not change, 3% – they will decrease. 46% of respondents do not know how prices for their goods/services will change in the near future.
The indicator of expectations of business development prospects by industry was:
– in agriculture – 88 points;
– in industry – 81 points;
– in construction – 84 points;
– in the service sector – 69 points.
In general, the relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that, according to business entities, the positive trend in the development of the economy will continue in the next 3 months.
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